Coronavirus infections: reproductive numbers drop again (update)

Coronavirus infections: reproductive numbers drop again (update)

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Reproduction rate dropped below 1.0 again

UPDATE April 29, 2020: After an increase in the reproduction rate (R) of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 to 1.0 was recorded in the RKI daily report of April 27, 2020, R decreased again to 0.9 the next day. According to the RKI, the value is subject to a natural fluctuation. Since on April 27th Was 0.96, it was rounded up to 1.0. The following day it was below 0.95 again and was therefore rounded off.

COVID-19 infection rate increased in Germany

After the so-called reproduction rate (R) of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has been significantly reduced in the past few weeks, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is now announcing a slight increase to R = 1.0 for the first time. According to the RKI, the COVID-19 epidemic does not subside at this reproductive rate.

156,337 COVID-19 diseases are known to the RKI on April 28, 2020. 5931 deaths in Germany are currently associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Around 117,400 people are considered to have recovered. Based on the number of inhabitants, the highest infection density is found in Bavaria, Baden-W├╝rttemberg, Saarland and Hamburg.

What does the reproduction rate say?

In a current management report, the RKI announces that the reproduction rate (R) is now rising again for the first time after a downward trend. On April 27, 2020, the RKI determined the value R = 1.0. The rate is a measure of whether the epidemic is picking up or leveling off. It is the amount of people who infect an infected person. If R = 1, a sick person infects another person. If R = 2, one patient infects two more, etc. - if this value falls below 1.0, the epidemic will flatten out. It accelerates above 1.0.

First increase since early March

At the beginning of March 2020, R was around 3.0 according to the RKI. Below this value, there is an exponential growth in new cases. Such growth will sooner or later blow up the possibilities of the healthcare system. Thanks to the measures taken, this number could be reduced to 1.3 by April 8th. Due to the tightened contact restrictions, R finally dropped to 0.9, which slowed the epidemic. An upward trend can now be observed for the first time.

Wieler: "Success must be defended."

Due to the increase, RKI President Lothar Wieler appealed to the population to continue to adhere to the measures taken. So far, Germany has come relatively well through the corona pandemic. Loosening too quickly could undermine success. Therefore, it is necessary to stay at home, to keep your distance and to comply with the obligation to wear a mask.

People over 70 particularly at risk

The camp report also provides an overview of the distribution of COVID-19 diseases in Germany. Most people with COVID 19 (67 percent) are between 15 and 59 years old. Women and men are affected almost equally often (52 to 48 percent). 19 percent of the infection affects people over 70 years of age and 87 percent of all deaths occur in this age group. (vb)

Author and source information

This text corresponds to the specifications of the medical literature, medical guidelines and current studies and has been checked by medical doctors.

Graduate editor (FH) Volker Blasek


  • Robert Koch Institute: COVID-19 dashboard (accessed: April 28, 2020),
  • Daily report of the RKI on Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (published: April 27th, 2020),
  • Daily report of the RKI on Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (published: April 28th, 2020),

Video: Dr. Michael Good COVID-19 Update, July 14, 2020 (January 2023).